Table 1.

Methodology for the prediction–evaluation approach to the full-scale experiment at the Mont Terri underground rock laboratory

PhaseTaskMethod/type of simulationEvaluation metrics
PredictionMeshing, model developmentIntegrated finite difference
Model calibrationInverseTemperature
Evaluation of parametric uncertaintyFOSM method, Monte CarloTemperature
Evaluation of risk of failureFORMTemperature
Evaluation of conceptual uncertaintyForward, deterministicTemperature
Evaluation of scenario uncertaintyForward, deterministicTemperature
EvaluationMid-term evaluationComparison with sensorsTemperature, water saturation, relative humidity
Mid-term re-calibration
Long-term evaluationComparison with sensors, ‘post-mortem’Temperature, water saturation, relative humidity, thermal conductivity, pore pressure
  • FORM, first-order reliability method; FOSM, first-order second-moment.