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A scenario-based assessment of the tsunami hazard in Palermo, northern Sicily, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea

View ORCID ProfileJack Dignan, Aaron Micallef, Christof Mueller, View ORCID ProfileAttilio Sulli, View ORCID ProfileElisabetta Zizzo and View ORCID ProfileDaniele Spatola
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 500, 63-80, 31 March 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP500-2019-181
Jack Dignan
1School of the Environment, Geography and Geosciences, University of Portsmouth, PO1 2UP, UK
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Data curation (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Lead)], [Investigation (Lead)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Writing - Original Draft (Lead)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Lead)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • ORCID record for Jack Dignan
Aaron Micallef
2Marine Geology and Seafloor Surveying, University of Malta, MSD 2080, Malta
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Project administration (Equal)], [Supervision (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Christof Mueller
3GNS Science, Lower Hutt, 5010, New Zealand
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Software (Lead)], [Supervision (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
Attilio Sulli
4Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, University of Palermo, 90123, Italy
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Data curation (Equal)], [Resources (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • ORCID record for Attilio Sulli
  • For correspondence: [email protected]
Elisabetta Zizzo
4Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, University of Palermo, 90123, Italy
Roles: [Data curation (Equal)], [Investigation (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • ORCID record for Elisabetta Zizzo
Daniele Spatola
2Marine Geology and Seafloor Surveying, University of Malta, MSD 2080, Malta
Roles: [Data curation (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Investigation (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Writing - Original Draft (Supporting)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Daniele Spatola
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Abstract

Palermo is a populous city situated on the northern coast of Sicily, bordered by the Tyrrhenian Sea. This central part of the Mediterranean Sea features dramatic bathymetry, numerous subaqueous landslides and is also the epicentre to many subaqueous earthquakes. As such, the region is an area prone to tsunamis. This investigation uses the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) tsunami modelling package to simulate five near-field landslides, and five near-field earthquakes regarded as worst-case credible scenarios for Palermo. The seismic simulations produced waves on a very small scale, the largest being c. 5 cm at its maximum height, and none of the earthquake-generated tsunami waves produced any measurable inundation. The landslide simulations produced larger waves ranging from 1.9 to 12 m in maximum height, two of which resulted in inundation in areas surrounding the Port of Palermo. Sensitivity analysis identified that fault width and dislocation as well as landslide-specific gravity did have significant influence over maximum wave height, inundation and maximum run-up wave height. There are methodological issues limiting the extent to which this study forms a comprehensive tsunami hazard assessment of Palermo, such as gaps in bathymetric data, computational restrictions and lack of a probabilistic element. These issues are counteracted by the fact that this study does serve as a robust first step in identifying that landslides in the region may produce larger tsunami waves than earthquakes, and that the directionality of mass movement is critical in landslide-driven tsunami propagation in the southern Tyrrhenian region.

  • © 2020 The Author(s). Published by The Geological Society of London. All rights reserved
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Geological Society, London, Special Publications: 500 (1)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications
Volume 500
2020
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A scenario-based assessment of the tsunami hazard in Palermo, northern Sicily, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea

Jack Dignan, Aaron Micallef, Christof Mueller, Attilio Sulli, Elisabetta Zizzo and Daniele Spatola
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 500, 63-80, 31 March 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP500-2019-181
Jack Dignan
1School of the Environment, Geography and Geosciences, University of Portsmouth, PO1 2UP, UK
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Data curation (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Lead)], [Investigation (Lead)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Writing - Original Draft (Lead)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Lead)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Jack Dignan
Aaron Micallef
2Marine Geology and Seafloor Surveying, University of Malta, MSD 2080, Malta
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Project administration (Equal)], [Supervision (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Christof Mueller
3GNS Science, Lower Hutt, 5010, New Zealand
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Methodology (Lead)], [Software (Lead)], [Supervision (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Attilio Sulli
4Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, University of Palermo, 90123, Italy
Roles: [Conceptualization (Equal)], [Data curation (Equal)], [Resources (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Attilio Sulli
  • For correspondence: [email protected]
Elisabetta Zizzo
4Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, University of Palermo, 90123, Italy
Roles: [Data curation (Equal)], [Investigation (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Validation (Equal)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Equal)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Elisabetta Zizzo
Daniele Spatola
2Marine Geology and Seafloor Surveying, University of Malta, MSD 2080, Malta
Roles: [Data curation (Equal)], [Formal analysis (Equal)], [Investigation (Equal)], [Methodology (Equal)], [Writing - Original Draft (Supporting)], [Writing - Review & Editing (Supporting)]
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Daniele Spatola

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A scenario-based assessment of the tsunami hazard in Palermo, northern Sicily, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea

Jack Dignan, Aaron Micallef, Christof Mueller, Attilio Sulli, Elisabetta Zizzo and Daniele Spatola
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 500, 63-80, 31 March 2020, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP500-2019-181
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