Himalayan earthquakes: a review of historical seismicity and early 21st century slip potential

Roger Bilham
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 483, 423-482, 5 February 2019, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP483.16

Article Figures & Data

Figures

  • Fig. 1.
    Fig. 1.

    Historical geodesy. Small black triangles indicate trigonometrical points linking the nineteenth century Great Trigonometrical Survey of India to the Russian Survey network measured in 1913 (Mason 1914). A small part of the 1913 Indo-Russian network connecting Osh to Islamabad was remeasured in 1980 (yellow: Chen et al. 1984). The c. 300 km-long trigonometrical distance between Sirsar (SIRS) and Khagriani (KHAG) was measured directly with GPS methods in 2001 and 2005. Colour-coded squares indicate GPS velocities relative to India obtained in the past 30 years. Smoothed blue solid contours indicate southwards velocity; dashed black contours indicate westwards velocity. Earthquake ruptures are indicated by violet shading with the magnitudes indicated. Hatched areas indicate pre-instrumental earthquakes in the late nineteenth century.

  • Fig. 2.
    Fig. 2.

    (a) India-fixed GPS north velocities summarized by Vernant et al. (2014) and Kreemer et al. (2014) are coloured coded to indicate their southwards velocity relative to India. The blue line indicates the 8.5 mm a−1 velocity contour which approximately follows the locking line at 18 km depth below the 3.5 km contour. The dashed green line is small-circle fit to this centred on a pole at 42.1° N and 90.72° E with a radius of 1642 km (Vernant et al. 2014) used in subsequent plots. (b) Deviation of GPS vectors (from arc normal) within the 1 radian quadrant dashed. The weighted least-squares fit to these (red line) is used to calculate the deviation from arc normal velocities depicted as arrows in (a). (c) Arc-normal velocities within the small-circle quadrant compared with synthetic velocities for a 6°–9° dipping dislocation locked at 18 km depth, and with convergence velocities of 16 and 18 mm a−1 (red lines), and synthetic vertical displacements (green lines).

  • Fig. 3.
    Fig. 3.

    (a) Seismicity of Himalaya and Tibet. (b) Time–distance graph showing the rupture lengths of historical earthquakes since 1800 (violet), inferred ruptures (dashed violet) discussed in the text, and the increase in recorded earthquakes since 1900. Red are deeper than 40 km: blue are shallower. (c) Polar plot centred at 42.1° N, 90.72° E straightens the Himalaya and illustrates that the locking line closely follows a small circle. Recent earthquakes are dated and colour coded according to depth (scale as in a). Historical earthquakes and unruptured segments of the décollement are colour coded according to the legend below the figure. Incomplete ruptures leave a substantial fraction of the décollement unruptured (see Fig. 4b). (d) The same polar plot showing the radial width of the décollement as a function of distance along the arc. The lower edge of the shaded region represents the Main Frontal Thrust; the upper edge the locking line. The red lines indicate along-arc spatial averages with their numerical values.

  • Fig. 4.
    Fig. 4.

    Geometry of the slip in Himalayan earthquakes (section from Mencin et al. 2016). Updip blind thrusts from oil exploration seismic lines (Bashyal 1998). The square wave indicates locked, the bold line indicates rupture and the sine wave indicates aseismic slip. (a) The region of interseismic strain accumulation is the locus of microseismicity and occasional moderate earthquakes occurring as high-level thrusts. (b) Incomplete rupture in the 2015 Gorkha Mw 7.8 earthquake, with subsequent induced post-seismic creep (4 min–4 years). No slip occurred on the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) but triggered surface slip was recorded on the Main Dun Thrust. InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) imagery shows that this occurred in the form of decaying creep for 26 km along strike with no slip below c. 5 km. The slip increased over a few weeks to ≥5 cm and then ceased (Elliott et al. 2016). (c) Complete rupture as inferred to occur in great earthquakes (e.g. in 1505 and 1950 Mw ≥ 8.6). Occasionally these may activate blind thrusts south of the MFT.

  • Fig. 5.
    Fig. 5.

    Location of the Qtub Minar and the Buddhist Kesariya Stupa relative to the nearby Himalayan earthquakes. The omission of the multifluted ornamentation of the lower three tiers in higher levels of the minar has been interpreted as a result of post-seismic 14th century reconstruction (Rajendran et al. 2018b). The Qtub is alleged to have lost its summit cupula in the 1803 earthquake, and the uppermost 7 m of the Stupa collapsed in the 1934 earthquake.

  • Fig. 6.
    Fig. 6.

    The location of sixteenth century earthquakes, and reported damage from the 6 June 1505 and 1555 earthquakes. White circles clustered near inferred rupture zones (shaded black) indicate conformed reports; open squares are accounts of dubious validity. Dated events with no rupture areas are the location of accounts from one location only with no indication of severity. The inset polar plots are shown for westwards (nucleation at 28.3° N, 83.5° E) or eastwards (nucleation at 30.5° N, 79.5° E) propagation for the 6 June 1505 8.7 < Mw < 8.9 earthquake, assuming it was a single event (see the text). The radial direction from each hypothesized nucleation point is represented by the log of the distance in kilometres from the hypothetical epicentre at the centre of the polar plot, and the azimuth indicates the proximity and direction of major cities and the (in this case, sparse) location of intensity observations. The grey area within the dashed red line represents the rupture area (from Table 2) using the same projection and permits a first-order evaluation of the possible influence of rupture propagation directivity, relative to reported observations of shaking intensity. That the earthquake was not reported in Kathmandu, where sediment amplification would have been pronounced, provides weak evidence that the earthquake ruptured westwards (see the text).

  • Fig. 7.
    Fig. 7.

    Maps of the Kashmir Valley. (a) Section of Montgomerie (1858) map showing villages of Nila and Dampur mentioned in one of several accounts of the 1555 earthquake (location a in d). The Nila location is also mentioned as venting methane in an account of the 1885 Kashmir earthquake. (b) Segment from 1858 map with a dashed box showing the location of the 2014 Google Image (c). The villages Hussainpur (Hu), Hossainpur (Ha) and Dampur (Wampur, Wa) near Arwin allegedly switched sides across the Vesha River in 1555. The Vesha floodplain is approximated by the dark forest cover. With the exception of a more pronounced meander near Tulkhan, the path of the Vesha River has changed little since 1858. The present village of Wanpora may correspond to the village of Dampur (Wampur) mentioned in Ferishta's account of the legend. (d) Location map. The village of Khadinyar near Baramulla lies close to the earthquake-induced landslide that in 844 CE dammed the Jhelum and flooded the valley up to Bijbehara (Bilham & Bali 2013). Bilham et al. (2013) described a minor normal fault near the summit of the Sintham Pass that slipped near this time (c. 700 CE 14C detrital date). The Sughandesa Temple near Patan was damaged in an earthquake in 1123 CE and again in 1885 (Bilham & Bali 2013).

  • Fig. 8.
    Fig. 8.

    Seventeenth and eighteenth century earthquakes. With one exception, the earthquakes are known from single accounts and thus permit no estimate of magnitude. The exception is the 1714 Bhutan Mw = 8.0 ± 0.5 earthquake (Hetényi et al. 2016) felt north and east of the epicentre, and associated with dated slip in two trenches (white circles).

  • Fig. 9.
    Fig. 9.

    Nineteenth century earthquakes. Approximate location of the 1803 rupture and its felt reports (white circles), and the location of all nineteenth century felt reports (1800–99, black dots) from Martin & Szeliga 2010. Approximate EMS intensity contours for the 1803 earthquake are shown.

  • Fig. 10.
    Fig. 10.

    The inferred epicentral region of the 1803 earthquake (dashed) is loosely drawn to encapsulate the EMS intensity 7 observations (red numbers) and named temples (violet italics) repaired after 1803 (Rajendran et al. 2013). The repair or ruin of temples to the SE of the depicted rupture is not specifically associated with the 1803 earthquake. The rupture areas of the Uttarkashi 1991 and Chamoli 1991 earthquakes are shaded blue, and their intensity ≥7 felt locations are shaded by orange and green squares, respectively. The conjectural west end of the 1505 rupture is outlined with light grey shading. The arrow depicts the local convergence rate and direction.

  • Fig. 11.
    Fig. 11.

    Polar log–distance plots showing the conjectural rupture zone and observed and residual EMS assessments for the 1803 Almora/Srinagar earthquake. The residual is the difference between the observed EMS value and that predicted by the Himalayan attenuation curve developed by Szeliga et al. (2010). SE rupture propagation is evident from the residual plot (right), and is consistent with their calculated epicentre near Gangotri and Uttarkashi (Fig. 10).

  • Fig. 12.
    Fig. 12.

    (a) A cartoon of sequential slip in the 1505, 1803, 1991 and 1999 earthquakes depicting the static slip residual resulting from contiguous or overlapping elliptical slip distributions. Assuming the 1991 and 199 earthquakes reduced the wedge-shaped grey slip residuals between the larger earthquakes, the hatched region shows considerable slip potential remains to which must be added the growing 1.5 m/century slip potential from the convergence rate. (b) The time sequence of the growing slip potential assuming zero strain after the 1505 earthquake at these longitudes. The region between the 1991 and 1999 earthquakes includes a slip deficit that will grow by c. 2100 to 4.5 m. The current slip deficit is sufficient to drive a 7 < Mw < 7.3 earthquake in the Almora/Srinagar/Tehri region.

  • Fig. 13.
    Fig. 13.

    Polar plot comparing the intensity distributions of the 1833 and 2015 earthquakes (from Mencin et al. 2016). The left-hand plot shows only those locations for which an intensity was evaluated both in 1833 and in 2015; whereas the right-hand plot numbers all the 1833 observations in black, and the 2015 observations in colour.

  • Fig. 14.
    Fig. 14.

    The crescent-shaped uncertainty in the location of the 1866 Mw ≈ 7 aftershock (Szeliga et al. 2010) surrounding Kathmandu results from the weak geometrical distribution of felt EMS intensities (numbered) mostly along the Ganges. The square wave depicts the locking line. If the 2015 Gorkha rupture area is adopted as a proxy for the 1833 rupture; the 12 May 2015 aftershock would be consistent with a recurrence of the 1866 earthquake.

  • Fig. 15.
    Fig. 15.

    The 1885 Kashmir earthquake and felt locations (solid circles) showing approximate isoseismal contours for EMS intensities 5, 6 and 7 surrounding Baramulla.

  • Fig. 16.
    Fig. 16.

    Uplift contours from one of several synthetic models consistent with horizontal triangulation changes before and after the 1897 Shillong rupture (England & Bilham 2015). Green boxes show (independent) observed vertical uplift relative to trigonometrical points on the southern margin of the plateau consistent with the synthetic model. Light blue to the SE and south of the rupture indicates transient lakes or the subsidence reported by Oldham (1899). Below the map is Oldham's (1899) photograph of the impounded (5 m deep) transient lake near Jhira, reproduced from Marr (1900). Red lines indicate faulting reported by Oldham (1899) with the sense of motion. To avoid running aground on shoals, a pilot was usually hired by captains steering shipping along the Brahmaputra between Dhubri and Gauhati. For many months after the earthquake this stretch of the river (light blue) was free from shoals and pilotage was not required.

  • Fig. 17.
    Fig. 17.

    Twentieth century felt reports (dots), major earthquakes and two great earthquakes.

  • Fig. 18.
    Fig. 18.

    Bounds of rupture for the Kangra 1905 earthquake (Table 6) shown by violet shading. Mean GPS convergence vectors (c. 15 mm a−1) are indicated by arrows (from Fig. 2). The mainshock and principal aftershock are separated by c. 150 km (cf. Gorkha 2015 earthquake). Slip partitioning between the Kangra Valley Fault and the frontal thrust faults varies from 50 to 66% depending on the strike of the fold belts currently active (shaded range in vector summation is shown in the lower right).

  • Fig. 19.
    Fig. 19.

    EMS intensities (Martin & Szeliga 2010; Szeliga & Bilham 2017) for the 1905 Kangra earthquake and log polar plots (on the right with the rupture zone in grey outlined by a red dashed line) centred on Dharmsala. Residuals (lower right) from removing synthetic amplitudes predicted by Himalayan attenuation parameters (Szeliga et al. 2010) suggest amplification towards the SE and attenuation to the NW, consistent with directivity caused by nucleation near Dharmsala and propagation 125–150 km to the SE. High intensities near Dehra Dun have hitherto been interpreted to have resulted from a triggered deep earthquake near the base of the Indian crust (Hough et al. 2005b, Hough & Bilham 2008).

  • Fig. 20.
    Fig. 20.
    Fig. 20.

    (a) Intensities observed in the 1934 Mw 8.4 rupture (from Ambraseys & Douglas 2004; Martin & Szeliga 2010) with nearby 1505, 1714 and 2015 rupture zones, dashed where inferred. The size of epicentral stars correspond to approximate mainshock location uncertainties. Various epicentral locations for the 1934 earthquake are indicated by letters: RD=Dunn et al. (1939), GR=Gutenberg and Richter (1949) which they rounded to the nearest half degree, IG=ISC/GEM v.5, CM=Chen & Molnar, 1977. White stars depict M > 5.7 aftershocks (ISC/GEM v.5) in the four years following the earthquake. Three 1934 scenario ruptures areas (a, b & c) are depicted (see the text). Large arrows show inferred rupture propagation directions. Dunn et al. (1939) propose that the mainshock was a major subevent, west of the nucleation phase, that occurred 11 s after the first arrival. Assuming a 2.6 km/s rupture propagation velocity its location would be c. 30 km west of the CM epicenter. Polar plots (below map) reveal apparent 1934 directivity to the SW related to rupture propagation in scenario a. Amplification in the Ganges sediments is partly responsible for positive residuals to the SW, but the absence of amplification in the SE quadrant at all distances is presumed to arise from directivity to the SW, consistent with scenario a and the location of the dominant subevent west of the nucleation event. (b) Scenes from the ‘slump belt’ of the Bihar province of India after the 1934 Bihar/Nepal earthquake. Sitamarhi (left at 26.58° N, 85.48° E), was long considered close to the epicentre of the 1934 earthquake. A typical fissure was 80 m long, 2.5 m wide and filled with sand to within 1m of the top (Dunn et al. 1939, p. 149, and p. 210). Extensive lateral spreading and sand venting occurred during liquefaction of sediments in the Ganges Plain south of the rupture.

  • Fig. 21.
    Fig. 21.
    Fig. 21.

    (a) Estimated rupture zones and inferred propagation directions for the 1947 Mw = 7.7 and 1950 Mw = 8.7 earthquakes (the size of epicentral stars approximate the location uncertainties). Yellow and black stars are 1947 and 1950 mainshock locations from ISC/GEM v.5, and Chen and Molnar (1977) respectively. Red pentagons are the first 100 days of 1950 aftershocks from ISCGEM. Numerical EMS intensities and smoothed isoseismal contours are shown for the 1950 rupture. Felt intensities in the polar plots are consistent with westwards propagation in 1950, but high intensities are also influenced by sediment amplification in the Brahmaputra Valley. (b) Photographs of rail damage near Dibrugarh in the Brahmaputra Valley after the 1950 Assam earthquake photographed by M.C. Poddar (1950). (ii) is a close-up of the engine shed visible in the background of (i). Liquefaction sanding is visible in the foreground of (i) and is responsible for the subsidence beneath the tilted engine. A lateral spreading crack has severed the house in (iii).

  • Fig. 22.
    Fig. 22.

    View looking north at the 2005 earthquake fault scarp east of Muzafferabad. In the background can be seen some of the many thousands of landslides triggered by the earthquake. Shaking intensity was assessed as EMS 8–9 within 10 km of the surface rupture.

  • Fig. 23.
    Fig. 23.

    Kashmir Mw = 7.6, 8 October 2005: subsurface propagation (open arrows) and surface slip (solid arrows, largest surface slip = 8 m) from Avouac et al. (2006), with intensity distribution from Martin & Szeliga (2010). EMS intensities 7 and 8 are contoured with individual observations between EMS6 (green) and EMS 9 (red) indicated. The poorly constrained bounds of the 1555 earthquake (dashed) embrace possible slip of a rectangular steeply dipping patch SE of the 2005 rupture, or rupture beneath the Zanskar.

  • Fig. 24.
    Fig. 24.

    Polar plots for the Kashmir Mw = 7.6, 8 October 2015. Circles are logarithmically increasing distances from the hypocentre in kilometres. The grey area bordered by a dashed red line indicates the inferred subsurface rupture which ruptured bilaterally and updip. The solid red line indicates the surface rupture. Far-field intensities were amplified by 1–1.5 intensity units in the region of thick sedimentary cover in the Punjab and Ganges basins. Amplification was additionally enhanced by directivity effects during nucleation. Approximate isoseismal contours (EMS 4–7) are shown as dashed lines in map view.

  • Fig. 25.
    Fig. 25.

    2015 Gorkha rupture area and preceding contiguous earthquakes (from ISC/GEM v. 5). EMS-98 intensities are from Martin et al. 2015. Intensities above the rupture area average EMS 6.6. Intensities in the Terai south of the rupture average EMS 5, compared to intensities of 6–8 at similar distances from the 1934 rupture (Fig. 18). The polar plot shows anomalous low residuals above the rupture (shaded blue) predicted from the Himalayan attenuation parameters of Szeliga et al. (2010). Microseismicity during 1995–99 are shown as red dots. Palaeoseismic trenches are indicated by triangles (from Wesnousky et al. 2018).

  • Fig. 26.
    Fig. 26.

    Bedrock motions from the southern edge of the Gorkha rupture displayed as hodograms (map views of horizontal motions). (a) GPS positions sampled every 0.2 s at point KKN4 on the northern edge of the basin reveal the wholesale 1.5 m southwards displacement of the surface rocks of Nepal over the Indian Plate. Simultaneously, the basin rose 1 m more in the north than the south (Galetzka et al. 2015). The horizontal displacement is known as ‘fling’ because of its dynamic non-recoverable offset (in this case more than 1.5 m). (b) The GPS velocity at KKN4 is the time derivative of (a). (c) KKN4 acceleration, the time derivative of (b). (d) KTP acceleration measured by a strong motion accelerometer (Takai et al. 2016). (e) view of ridge amplification in northern Nepal. The distant village at lower elevation is shaken by lower shaking intensity.

  • Fig. 27.
    Fig. 27.

    The first 20 days of aftershocks (log of time since the mainshock) including the Mw = 7.3 aftershock show a general eastwards migration of seismic activity. The xx events symbolize the numerous radiating phases that occurred during eastward propagation along the northern edge of the locked décollement in the first two minutes of the rupture. Five aftershocks ≥Mw = 4 occur in the first 14 min (0.01 days). More than 553 Mw > 4 earthquakes occurred within 45 days of the mainshock.

  • Fig. 28.
    Fig. 28.

    Historical earthquakes (red) and dated palaeoseismic ruptures of Himalayan Frontal Thrust faults (shown by error bars). Least-squares fits to the east and west Himalaya are indicated with weighted deviations proportional to the range of reported dates at each site. Blue lines are weighted least-squares fit representing a hypothetical west-propagating rupture front with a velocity of 7.5 ± 5 km a−1 starting in Assam at c. 1100 and arriving at Kashmir >1400 (dates that ignore systematic detrital 14C errors). Grey dashed bars indicate synchronous slip in single earthquakes with surface ruptures exceeding 200 km proposed variously by Mugnier et al. (2013), Rajendran et al. (2018b) and Wesnousky et al. (2019). A, Arora & Malik (2017), Malik & Nakata (2003); Malik et al. (2003, 2008, 2010a, b); B, Kumahara & Jayangondaperumal (2013); C, Kumar et al. (2006); D, Malik et al. (2017); E, Rajendran et al. (2015, 2018b); F, Yule et al. (2006); G, Hossler et al. (2016); H, Mugnier et al. (1998, 2013); J, Murphy et al. (2013); K, Wesnousky et al. (2017b); L, Lave et al. (2005); M, Sapkota et al. (2013); N, Upreti et al. (2000, 2007); P, Kumar et al. (2010); Q, Le Roux-Mallouf et al. (2016); R, Jayangondaperumal et al. (2011); S, Priyanka et al. (2017); T, Wesnousky et al. (2018).

  • Fig. 29.
    Fig. 29.

    Schematic descent of the Indian Plate beneath Tibet showing the volume of Himalaya subject to 10 µstrain compression (200 years at 17 mm a−1) for seismic-decoupling transition widths of 3–60 km. The tip of the 3 km-wide decoupling zone reaches 100 µstrain in 200 years (small black area). A 5 km wide shaded area can store elastic strain approaching failure in a much larger region (shaded). A second shaded area extending 60 km down-dip can store significantly more strain before failure (dashed contours show cumulative strain ampliitude after 200 years). Wider decoupling zones take longer to reach 100 µstrain failure levels, but can drive correspondingly larger earthquakes due to their longer downdip widths. The steep reverse fault represents the preferred path for faulting in the presence of a fully locked décollement (c.f. Fig. 4a).

  • Fig. 30.
    Fig. 30.

    Seismic slip deficit assuming a mean convergence rate of 15 mm a−1 for the Himalaya. The dashed line indicates the theoretical moment release; the solid incremental lines represent the observed rate taking the high and low estimate for historical magnitudes. The divergence of the synthetic and dashed lines imply that one or two Mw ≥ 8.6 earthquakes, or an equivalent moment release contributed by several Mw > 8 earthquakes, are missing and must occur in the future.

  • Fig. 31.
    Fig. 31.

    Seasonal occurrences of historical and recent Himalayan earthquakes. (a) The declustered time history of Himalayan earthquakes 1904–2018 from the ComCat USGS catalog, and is plotted east (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/). Earthquakes east of 78°E are shaded red, and earthquakes to the west are shaded green. (b) map view with same shading. Blue stars depict the approximate locations of historical earthquakes (Table 1). (b) map view indicating locations of Himalayan earthquakes coloured in (a) and (c). (c) Monthly counts of significant pre-1900 earthquakes and post 1900 Mw ≥ 5.5 earthquakes. Due to the westwards progression of the monsoon, earthquakes in the Western Himalaya should respond later than the Eastern Himalaya; however, this effect and the direct influence of the monsoon on the timing of Mw ≥ 5.5 earthquakes appears to be insignificant contrary to claims by Panda et al. (2018). In each panel in (c), bars indicate cumulative earthquakes per month; east (red) and west (green), and the sum of these two – total counts (blue historical; black 1904–2018).

  • Fig. 32.
    Fig. 32.

    Cumulative fatalities from Himalayan earthquakes 1800–2018. None of these recent earthquakes have occurred at night, although the Kangra earthquake occurred at 6 am. It is likely that should a nocturnal earthquake occur, especially close to a large population such as Dehra Dun or Kashmir or Kathmandu, the death toll may exceed 100 000. Wyss (2005, 2017) estimated maximum death tolls of twice this for some scenario earthquakes.

  • Fig. 33.
    Fig. 33.

    (a) Temple at Saharn, Sutlej Valley with interleaved stone and timber (photographed by Carl Griesbach in 1883). (b) A Koti Banal dwelling in Manikarn, Kulu that survived the 1905 Mw = 7.8 Kangra and earlier earthquakes (photographed by Charles Middlemiss in 1905). Some Koti dwellings succumbed to a 1906 Mw 6.5 aftershock (Szeliga & Bilham 2017). Rautela & Joshi (2008) speculated that this style of architecture was introduced more than 800 years ago as a response to a widespread damaging Himalayan earthquake, and that some of the original structures still remain.

  • Fig. 34.
    Fig. 34.

    Five centuries of Himalayan rupture zones (black) and current slip potential (metre scale (right)) since the last rupture in named segments. The colours indicate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that could occur in the present time should a segment fail in a single event or as partial slip. Two areas with violet shading could host Mw > 8.7 earthquakes. Six areas with brown shading could rupture in Mw 8.4 earthquakes. Five areas, shaded yellow, could presently slip in Mw ≥ 7.7 earthquakes similar to the recent Gorkha earthquake. The Kathmandu region could experience a Mw 7.3 earthquake to its south, but I argue in the text that this is unlikely. The inset shows an earlier version of this plot made before the 2005 and 2015 earthquakes (Bilham & Wallace 2005). The 2005 earthquake occurred to the west of a Mw = 8.0 forecast region, and the 2015 earthquake occurred at the junction between Mw = 7.4 and Mw = 7.9 forecast areas north of Kathmandu. A recurrence of the 1833 earthquake was not anticipated.

Tables

  • Table 1.

    Chronological list of significant Himalayan earthquakes including palaeoseismic earthquakes with approximate dates where no known historical account exists

    Date year:month:dayLatitude (° N)Longitude (° E)Low MwHigh MwSource and commentary
    844:00:003474.86.57.5Srinagar, Kashmir. Great earthquake occurred during the night – landslide dammed Jhelum at Khadanyar near Baramulla (Stein 1892, 1898; Bilham & Bali 2013) (Fig. 7)
    1123:00:003474.86.57.5Srinagar, Kashmir. (Stein 1892, 1898; Iyengar & Sharma 1996, 1998; Iyengar et al. 1999), Sugandhesa Temple damage (Bilham & Bali 2013) (Fig. 7)
    1100 ± 5027c. 86.58.59No historical record (Wesnousky et al. 2019)
    1223:1 2:2427.785.36.57Nepal (Pant 2002)
    1225:06:0727.785.37.58.5Nepal (Pant 2002). One-third of the population of Kathmandu killed. (Sapkota et al. 2013)
    1344:09:1427.785.37.58.2Nepal (Pant 2002; Bollinger et al. 2016). Epicentral longitude ±1°
    1400 ± 5030828.08.5Western Himalaya (Kumar et al. 2001, 2006)
    1501:09:243474.86.57Srinagar, Kashmir. Three months of aftershocks (Bilham & Bali 2013)
    1505:06:06*30828.28.9Guge, eastern Nepal and Kumaon (Jackson 2000; Ambraseys & Jackson 2003)
    1505:07:06347177.9Kabul, Afghanistan (Ambraseys & Bilham 2003a, b)
    1519:01:033571.577.5Bajaur, Afghanistan (Ambraseys & Bilham 2003a, b)
    1552Refers to the 1555 earthquake. Misinterpretation of the Prinsep (1858) p. 312 entry on the events in the 3 year reign of Ibrahim II
    1555:09:00*34.2574.87.68Kashmir. Baramula 34.25° N, 74.3° E; Srinagar 34.15° N, 74.8° E; Bilarah 33.8° N, 75.1° E; Anantang 33.75° N, 75.2° E; Mareg 33.7° N, 75.6° E; Maru Pergam 33.65° N, 75.7° E (Iyengar & Sharma 1996, 1998; Iyengar et al. 1999; Ambraseys & Jackson 2003; Bashir et al. 2009; Bilham & Bali 2013). Earthquakes for 7 days. Landslides, liquefaction and aftershocks (Bashir et al. 2009; Bilham & Bali 2013)
    1669:06:233474.86.57Srinagar, Kashmir. The buildings rocked like cradles. No loss of life (distant event?) (Bashir et al. 2009; Bilham & Bali 2013)
    1678 (1779?)3474.86.56.8Srinagar, Kashmir. Persistent shaking. Reconstruction needed (Bashir et al. 2009; Bilham & Bali 2013)
    1683:00:003474.86.56.8Srinagar, Kashmir. Shocks continued for a long time, which caused panic among masses. The quake victims constructed new houses (Bashir et al. 2009; Bilham & Bali 2013)
    1714:05:0427.589.688.2Bhutan (Hetényi et al. 2016). Two historical accounts, felt reports and trenching.
    1736:03:243474.86.57Srinagar, Kashmir. ‘Buildings of the city and hamlets razed to the ground’. Aftershocks for 3 months (Bashir et al. 2009 list this event as 1735)
    1752:00:0031.579.86.57Ambraseys & Jackson (2003) list this event as 1751
    1779:00:003474.86.57.5(Srinagar and villages in Kashmir Valley) flattened and aftershocks for 14 days. ‘destroyed houses in city and villages with much loss their life’. Aftershocks for 6 weeks: Bashir et al. (2009) list this event as 1778; Oldham (1883) lists it as 1780.
    17843474.86.57.5Srinagar, Kashmir. People thrown. Shocks persisted for 6 months. Possibly 1785,
    1803:09:01*31.5797.57.9Gangotri, Srinagar (Gharwal), Almora (Ambraseys & Jackson 2003; Rajendran et al. 2013, 2015)
    1808:06:0427.785.36.57Nepal (Pant 2002), 21 aftershocks
    1828:06:283474.86.57.5Srinagar, Kashmir (Vigne 1844), 1200 houses collapsed, 15 days of aftershocks (Bashir et al. 2009)
    1833:08:26*28.8378.587.77.8Nepal (Bilham 1995; Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1842:02:1934.4270.837.5Jalalabad (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1842:03:0530.2880.627.2Gharwal (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1845:08:0626.0990.897.1Shillong (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1852:03:3128.0979.177.0Gharwal (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1863:00:003474.86Srinagar, Kashmir (Bashir et al. 2009) Lawrence (1895) indicates 1864
    1866:05:23*27.1285.267.4Nepal (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1878:03:0234.4872.187.4Hazara, Pakistan (Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1885:05:3034.5474.687.17.5Baramulla, Kashmir (Jones 1885b; Bashir et al. 2009; Szeliga et al. 2010)
    1897:06:12*25.1390.078.18.3Shillong (Szeliga et al. 2010; England & Bilham 2015)
    1905:04:04*32.63676.7887.87.9Kangra (Szeliga et al. 2010; Szeliga & Bilham 2017)
    1908:12:1226.94896.7737
    1916:08:2829.7380.7457
    1934:01:15*27.5587.098.4Bihar, Nepal (Chen & Molnar 1977, 1983)
    1936:05:2728.37883.326.9Nepal
    1943:10:2326.70593.8297.2
    1947:07:29*28.6393.737.3Chen & Molnar 1977, 1983)
    1950:08:15*28.36396.4458.7Assam (28.33° N, 96.76° E: Chen & Molnar 1977)
    1964:10:2128.06593.7986.8
    1966:03:0631.52580.4876.7
    1975:01:1932.39378.5366.8
    1988:08:2026.71286.6276.9Udaypur >50 km depth
    1991:10:1930.75378.8236.8
    2005:10:08*34.45173.6497.6Muzafferapur, Pakistan
    2011:09:1827.75688.1416.9
    2015:14:25*28.1584.717.8Gorkha, Nepal

    • Prior to 1900, coordinates indicate felt locations or trench locations, not epicentral coordinates. For many historical earthquakes only one report exists, and epicentral longitudes are not known better than 1°. A range of magnitudes is provided for pre-instrumental earthquakes, and case studies are devoted to earthquakes marked with an asterix. A zero month or day indicates that only the year is known.

  • Table 2.

    Estimated bounds of the 6 June 1505 8.7 < Mw < 8.9 Garwhal/Nepal rupture (latitude GN°, longitude GE°) and the September 1555 Kashmir (latitude KN°, longitude KE°) ruptures (see the text)

    1505 Gharwal, western Nepal1555 Kashmir
    GN°GE°GN°GE°KN°KE°
    29.679.028.983.234.274.1
    29.578.929.182.934.074.0
    29.279.829.482.533.773.9
    29.080.429.582.333.574.1
    28.781.029.682.033.374.6
    28.681.329.781.833.274.9
    28.481.529.781.633.275.2
    28.081.929.881.333.575.5
    27.782.529.981.133.875.5
    27.882.930.080.734.275.2
    27.883.130.180.434.374.9
    27.783.930.280.234.474.7
    27.884.030.279.934.474.5
    28.084.230.379.834.474.3
    28.484.230.479.634.274.1
    28.683.730.579.434.274.1
    28.783.429.679.034.074.0
  • Table 3.

    Bhutan earthquake intensity observations (I) and approximate bounds for ruptures (latitude BN°, longitude BE°) from Hetényi et al. (2016)

    LocationLatitude (° N)Longitude (° E)IBN°BE°BN°BE°BN°BE°
    Wangdue27.589.9827.588.926.990.327.690.0
    Bahgara26.994.4627.188.926.990.527.589.7
    Charaideo26.994.9626.989.026.890.927.589.1
    Tinkhong27.295.2626.889.327.191.227.588.9
    Sarpang Trench90.326.9826.889.427.591.227.588.9
    Gelephu Trench90.526.9826.789.927.590.7
  • Table 4.

    Approximate coordinates bounding the rupture of the 1803 earthquake (used to plot rupture zones shown in Figs 10 & 11)

    Latitude (° N)Longitude (° E)Latitude (° N)Longitude (° E)
    30.879.029.978.9
    31.078.630.179.3
    30.878.330.479.5
    30.478.130.679.5
    30.078.430.879.0

    • The area indicated is much the most uncertain of the several large earthquakes that have occurred since 1800. The epicentre from maximum damage and directivity consideration is inferred to have been at 30.7° N, 78.7° E, with rupture propagation to the SE.

  • Table 5.

    Subsurface coordinates for the Oldham Fault, Shillong 1897 earthquake Mw = 8.2

    Old latitude (° N)Old longitude (° E)ChedNChedEChedNChedEChedNChedE
    25.990.6825.90790.62925.84690.67525.90790.629
    25.791.5925.89690.63825.83790.67525.89690.638
    25.591.5725.88690.64725.82790.67625.88690.647
    25.790.6625.87690.65625.81890.67625.87690.656
    25.990.6825.86690.66525.80990.67725.86690.665
    25.85690.67425.78190.67725.85690.674

    • The first two columns indicate the subsurface bounds of the Oldham fault. The strike of the subsurface fault was N110° E, its length 79–95 km, and it slipped from 31 km to 6 km depth with mean slip 25 m. The coordinates of the surface expression of the 24 km-long Chedrang normal fault that slipped 11 m are listed in the six right-hand columns (England & Bilham 2015).

  • Table 6.

    Coordinates encapsulating the inferred rupture area of the 1905 Kangra earthquake

    Latitude (° N)32.6632.4932.2231.7831.5831.3631.1731.1831.623232.3532.4832.632.6632.66
    Longitude (° E)76.4276.776.9477.3477.3577.1476.8276.776.32176.0875.975.9876.1576.32176.42
  • Table 7.

    Minimum estimated bounds to rupture for the 1934 Nepal earthquake (scenario a in Fig. 20)

    Latitude (° N)Longitude (° E)
    2786.09
    26.886.7
    26.8286.9
    26.987.1
    2787.15
    27.387.12
    27.687.17
    27.6687.1
    27.6687
    27.786.8
    27.7486.7
    27.6886.6
    27.7386.35
    27.6286.3
    27.6286.2
    27.6386.1
    27.686.06
    27.586.08
    27.486.05
    27.3786
    27.385.97
    27.186.03

    • The epicentre was near 27.55° N, 87.09° E.

  • Table 8.

    Estimated bounds to the 1950 Assam rupture zone

    Latitude (° N)Longitude (° E)
    27.7894.88
    27.9995.2
    28.1595.51
    28.3395.9
    2896.29
    27.6496.51
    27.7196.97
    27.9997.15
    28.3797.05
    28.7396.77
    29.1296.42
    29.5295.98
    29.4795.5
    29.2694.97
    28.894.4
    28.394.65
    27.994.1

    • The northern and eastern bounds are taken to be the mean 3.5 km contour and the Po Qu-Lohit Fault, respectively. The western bound abuts the inferred rupture zone of the 1947 Mw = 7.7 earthquake. The SW thrust boundary is adopted from a talk given by Jerome Van De Woerd in 2017 (Coudurier-Curveur et al. 2018).

    • The epicentre was given as 28.38° N, 96.76° E in Chen & Molnar (1983) and 28.29° N, 96.66° E in ISC/GEM5.

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