Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Fig. 1.
Subduction region of the Nankai–Tonankai Trough showing geographical areas and colour-coded contour lines of depth to the fault plane. Grey boxes mark the sub-faults of the 2012 CDMC model.
- Fig. 2.
Rupture cases (1)–(11) for the 2012 CDMC model. Note the variations in location and values of maximum fault slip, as well as the variable mean slip (hence, variable total seismic moment).
- Fig. 3.
Flowchart for generating stochastic earthquake slip realizations and kinematic rupture processes.
- Fig. 4.
Slip distribution modelling: (a) simulated slip distribution prior to non-linear scaling of slips and adjustments; (b) final simulated slip distribution after non-linear scaling of slips and adjustments; and (c) histogram of the final simulated slip distribution.
- Fig. 5.
Generation of hypocentre locations (the colour range is between 0 and 1): (a) preliminary probability density function for hypocentre locations; (b) constraints based on large and very large asperity areas; and (c) final probability density function for hypocentre locations.
- Fig. 6.
Kinematic rupture process from 0 to 180 s (the colour range is between 0 and 10 m).
- Fig. 7.
Stochastic slip distributions: (a) west slip pattern 1; (b) west slip pattern 2; (c) middle slip pattern 1; (d) middle slip pattern 2; (e) east slip pattern 1; and (f) east slip pattern 2.
- Fig. 8.
Maximum wave-height contours in Shikoku: (a) west slip pattern 1; (b) west slip pattern 2; (c) middle slip pattern 1. (d) middle slip pattern 2; (e) east slip pattern 1; and (f) east slip pattern 2.
- Fig. 9.
Maximum wave-height contours in Tokai: (a) west slip pattern 1; (b) west slip pattern 2; (c) middle slip pattern 1. (d) middle slip pattern 2; (e) east slip pattern 1; and (f) east slip pattern 2.
- Fig. 10.
(a) 100 tsunami wave profiles off Kochi, (b) 100 tsunami wave profiles off Hamamatsu, (c) statistics of 100 tsunami wave profiles and average wave profiles for west/middle/east slip patterns off Kochi, and (d) statistics of 100 tsunami wave profiles and average wave profiles for west/middle/east slip patterns off Hamamatsu.
- Fig. 11.
Maximum wave-height predictions along the coastal line: (a) Shikoku and (b) Tokai.
- Fig. 12.
Tsunami inundation results in Kochi: (a) elevation data; (b) cumulative probability distribution of inundation areas above 1 m depth; (c) inundation depth distribution at 50th percentile; (d) inundation depth distribution at 90th percentile; (e) slip distribution corresponding to the 50th percentile inundation map; and (f) slip distribution corresponding to the 90th percentile inundation map.
- Fig. 13.
Tsunami inundation results in Hamamatsu: (a) elevation data; (b) cumulative probability distribution of inundation areas above 1 m depth; (c) inundation depth distribution at 50th percentile; (d) inundation depth distribution at 90th percentile; (e) slip distribution corresponding to the 50th percentile inundation map; and (f) slip distribution corresponding to the 90th percentile inundation map.
Tables
Model parameter Distribution type Mean Standard deviation [Lower, Upper] Correlation length in downdip direction (km) Truncated normal distribution with lower and upper bounds 50 20 [30, 70] Correlation length in along-strike direction (km) 100 50 [50, 150] Hurst number 0.8 0.2 [0.6, 1.0] Box–Cox power 0.2 0.1 [0.1, 0.3] Mean slip (m) 9 3 [6, 12] Maximum slip (m) 50 10 [40, 60] Rise time (s) 60 10 [50, 70] Rupture velocity (km s−1) 2.5 0.5 [2.0, 3.0] Depth limit for the asperity areas (km) – – – [1, 10]
Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios
