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A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Gareth Davies, Jonathan Griffin, Finn Løvholt, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Hong Kie Thio, Stefano Lorito, Roberto Basili, Jacopo Selva, Eric Geist and Maria Ana Baptista
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 456, 219-244, 23 February 2017, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP456.5
Gareth Davies
1Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
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  • For correspondence: gareth.davies@ga.gov.au
Jonathan Griffin
1Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
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Finn Løvholt
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Sylfest Glimsdal
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Carl Harbitz
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Hong Kie Thio
3AECOM
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Stefano Lorito
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Roberto Basili
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Jacopo Selva
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Eric Geist
5Pacific Coast and Marine Science Centre, United States Geological Survey
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Maria Ana Baptista
6Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
7Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera
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Abstract

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  • © Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2018. Published by The Geological Society of London. All rights reserved
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Geological Society, London, Special Publications: 456 (1)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications
Volume 456
2018
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A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Gareth Davies, Jonathan Griffin, Finn Løvholt, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Hong Kie Thio, Stefano Lorito, Roberto Basili, Jacopo Selva, Eric Geist and Maria Ana Baptista
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 456, 219-244, 23 February 2017, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP456.5
Gareth Davies
1Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: gareth.davies@ga.gov.au
Jonathan Griffin
1Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Finn Løvholt
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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  • Search for this author on this site
Sylfest Glimsdal
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • Search for this author on this site
Carl Harbitz
2Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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  • Search for this author on this site
Hong Kie Thio
3AECOM
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Stefano Lorito
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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  • Search for this author on this site
Roberto Basili
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Jacopo Selva
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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  • Search for this author on this site
Eric Geist
5Pacific Coast and Marine Science Centre, United States Geological Survey
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  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Maria Ana Baptista
6Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
7Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site

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A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Gareth Davies, Jonathan Griffin, Finn Løvholt, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Harbitz, Hong Kie Thio, Stefano Lorito, Roberto Basili, Jacopo Selva, Eric Geist and Maria Ana Baptista
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 456, 219-244, 23 February 2017, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP456.5
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