Table 3.

Uncertainty parameters used for the FOSM method analysis and overview of FOSM method variants

Thermal conductivity (W m−1 °C−1)Heat capacity (J kg−1 °C−1)Log (intrinsic permeability) (m2)
OPAEDZLinerBlockPelletsOPAEDZLinerBlockPelletsOPA ||OPA ┴
Uncertainty ranges
Best estimate1.871.501.35Dry: 0.26
Wet: 0.96
8001068964900989−19.6−20.125
Standard deviation0.310.430.372Dry: 0.02
Wet: 0.12
108.0105.8102.1209.5102.50.2060.145
Estimated range*1.2–2.71.0–3.00.7–2.5Dry: 0.25–0.35
Wet: 0.7–1.3
700–1200700–1200700–1200600–1600700–1200−20 to −19−20.67 to −20
FOSM variants
fosm5××
fosm7××
fosm7hc××
fosm15××
fosm16××
fosm17××
fosm17hc×
fosm18××
fosm19××××
  • EDZ, excavation disturbed zone; FORM, first-order reliability method; FOSM, first-order second-moment; OPA, Opalinus Clay. ∥ parallel to bedding; ⊥, perpendicular to bedding.

  • *Assuming a triangular distribution with the estimated standard deviations.

  • Prediction–evaluation for heater 1.

  • Prediction–evaluation for heater 2.