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Geological Society, London, Special Publications; 1992; v. 63; p. 25-32;
DOI: 10.1144/GSL.SP.1992.063.01.02
© 1992 Geological Society of London

Decision making under risk in the mining industry: a risk appraisal case study

G. P. Walduck

Senior Mining Adviser, Overseas Development Administration, 94 Victoria Street, London SW1E 5JL, UK

The concepts of risk and uncertainty in investment are defined and their relevance explained. The nature of the uncertainty of a number of parameters employed in investment appraisal is described. Risk modelling in computer-assisted evaluations using Monte Carlo simulation is illustrated by means of a case study involving a brief and comparatively simple analysis. The study points to the possibility that a superficially attractive investment can become unattractive when risks are assessed, but conditions under which the reverse may be true are pointed out. The importance of results interpretation and presentation is high-lighted.