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Coastal Geomorphology and Shoreline Management Unit JE 2208, Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale, 32, Avenue Foch, F-62930 Wimereux, France
The comparison of aerial photographs of eroding coastal dunes located between Dunkerque (Northern France) and the Belgium border revealed that the retreat rate of the dune front increased between 1957 and 1988. Analyses of hourly water levels from the Dunkerque Harbour tide gauge showed an increase in the frequency of high water levels associated with storm surges during the same period. Significant wave heights that could be generated during these high water level events were computed according to a wave hindcast model and using wind data collected at Dunkerque. These analyses show an increase in storm magnitude and frequency during the last two decades of the study period, and suggest a strong relationship between dune front erosion and frequency of storm surge conditions. Since relative sea-level is rising in the southern North Sea, coastal dunes will probably be more frequently reached by storm waves in the future. Consequently, more severe coastal dune erosion may take place during the next decades, increasing the risk of flooding of coastal lowlands.
