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Saga Petroleum as, Kjørboveien 16, Sandvika, Norway
Department of Geography & Geophysics, Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas 77843-5309, USA
Basin modelling is a powerful quantitative tool and in order to be able to use modelling for the correct purpose and to expand the variety of problems where basin modelling with advantage can be applied, it is necessary to view basin modelling in the context of the general exploration process. Results from basin modelling are often directly used for ranking and risking of exploration targets. Due to the integrated nature of basin modelling it is applied more or less routinely throughout the exploration process for quantitative assessments. Awareness of some fundamental limitations of the models used is therefore vital in order to assess the overall uncertainty associated with the results. It will be shown how, through sensitivity analysis and risking of the modelling results, uncertainty ranges and confidence levels can be attached to the results. Examples of how sensitivity analysis helps in the process of understanding the system behaviour, reveals the critical factors, and provides the resolution limits on specified parameters will be given. Finally, a probabilistic procedure for assessing the uncertainty ranges and the level of confidence associated with modelling results will be given. A case history shows how the procedure can be used for providing risked entry parameters for the general risk assessment.
